Thursday, November 08, 2007

Forty Seven Million?

In response to an article in the NY Times by N. Gregory Mankiw that was published on November 4, 2007.

A key issue in this blog is the deceit of numbers foisted on the public as facts, especially numbers that have been ensconced in the public conscience as 'truth.' One of these figures is '47 million Americans are not insured.' Gregory Mankiw, a highly respected economist, weighs in on this issue - and once again it is clear that the numbers dumped on the public are not 'truth,' and in many cases are outright falsehoods.

How can we cope with this lack of facts? Perseverance is the only answer. Very few people have the time or the training to pursue each and every truism that crosses their doorstep. That is why the public votes based on their worldview - picking which party, not which candidate, best reflects their worldview. Lack of time drives simplification. The only way to get to the truth behind these numbers is to honestly doubt them and track them consistently over time until the truth is outed. This is one of the main benefits of being a reader of the NY Times, or other respected papers. It may take years and consistent readership, but the truth is out there.

Anyway, to Mr. Mankiw's article ---

"With the health care system at the center of the political debate, a lot of scary claims are being thrown around. The dangerous ones are not those that are false; watchdogs in the news media are quick to debunk them. Rather, the dangerous ones are those that are true but don’t mean what people think they mean. Here is an example (ed).

Some 47 million Americans do not have health insurance.....

To start with, the 47 million includes about 10 million residents who are not American citizens. Many are illegal immigrants. Even if we had national health insurance, they would probably not be covered.

The number also fails to take full account of Medicaid, the government’s health program for the poor. For instance, it counts millions of the poor who are eligible for Medicaid but have not yet applied. These individuals, who are healthier, on average, than those who are enrolled, could always apply if they ever needed significant medical care. They are uninsured in name only.

The 47 million also includes many who could buy insurance but haven’t. The Census Bureau reports that 18 million of the uninsured have annual household income of more than $50,000, which puts them in the top half of the income distribution. About a quarter of the uninsured have been offered employer-provided insurance but declined coverage.

Of course, millions of Americans have trouble getting health insurance. But they number far less than 47 million, and they make up only a few percent of the population of 300 million."

Unbelievable. The truth.... it is out there.

Normal caveat. Does this mean we should NOT have universal health insurance? Of course not. Should we do something to make sure as many as possible are insured? Of course. A mean-spirited debate about health care is not helpful. True facts, a spirited debate based on facts, and the result will be forthcoming.

Thank you Mr. Mankiw.